NINKI index for crossroad
 

http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/6484/singlesn.jpg

http://www.oricon.co.jp/rank/ns/

Previous NINKI index

MOON/blossom - 90.70
You were.../BALLAD's - 92.00

yeah!!! No. 1~~!!!

very very good!!!

I spy Hilchryme o: and good for her.

Koda is so near....

yeah they're #6 on the NINKI index with Travel Machine (great song <3 but where's the PV o_o)

I'm sure they will do fine since they have been in having a top10 streak after Shunkashutou has helped them out tremendously but they're not a threat to crossroad anyway

it's quite something that crossroad & Suki de x3 / Anata Dake ga is quite close to each other :O

Aren't Ayu's ninki's generally higher than that? :o

well...to be honest, i don't really care about this chart, but it's not a sin to take a look on it...

basically we all know that next week will be a hot battle between Ayu VS Kuu...

but since this is Ayu forum, i think it's more valid to support Ayu...C'MON AYU GET THAT RECORD!!!

^^I was thinking the same... wasn't M/b's like 90? :confused Guess the thing that counts is that she's #1.

Avex will do everything to keep ayu safe

^its hard to say now with that JYJ fiasco. Avex cant even defend themselves from hordes of fangirls now.

I REALLY hope that she can preserve the record. It'll be terribly ironic if she doesnt. I think avex will just kill themselves. As a fan, i WILL see it as the greatest blemish in her career. I mean, GUILTY not hitting #1 was already O.O

I have nothing against Kuu, and in fact, really LOVE suki de so much i dunno if I even like it more than crossroad but JUST LET AYU COMPLETE THE RECORD!!! >.<

That is cool, but yea, now I'm worried about her breaking the streak with this JJY thing going on. Did they do that on purpose? >.> Are they plotting against Ayu? haha
Oh well. Guess we'll have to wait and see, but I'm glad Ayu got #1.

I can't wait till the whole record breaking thing is over...with of course ayu breaking the record.

LOL you're saying it as though the other two members psychoed JJ into turning against this saying, "HEY, you acted in Hamasaki Ayumi's PV right? Do you know they're using you to beat Kuu and also break a Seiko Matsuda record? Do you know Seiko Matsuda?!? and Kuu, we collaborated before. We're being used JJ!!! Let's get outta here." hahaha...this is just a joke btw

As long as kuu is the only "rival", ayu should be safe. Don't forget kuu is under avex as well, so it's easier for avex to "control" the outcome. I'm not sure about other rivals tho, since avex can't control them...

^LOl..they can control? Unless they limit the number of copies of Kuu's CDs or..they rig the numbers which are both REALLY wrong. Can't really think of other ways. But lets just hope it'll allll go well for Ayu and may crossroad blossom :) Sry im not suggesting anything avex.

Thanks Karen! MOON/blossom NINKI was 90.70 while You were.../BALLAD's was 92.00~

thanks , I will add that bit of info in the 1st post now

lol guys yeah the JYJ thing is unfortunate and had like the worst timing to happen (just days before the release) but seriously, she'll be ok. I doubt THAT many JYJ fans were going to buy the single anyway, it's the same as before: the fans will get her that #1 like we always do.

Hmmmn.. if breaking the record for ayu is avex's intention, then yes, they'll probly do something like that. Honestly this is not the first time this company playing tricks. I dunno about the other artists since I dun really follow their charts, but for ayu I can at least see two moments for that..

1) the second week of Distance vs. A BEST. The first day of the second week was the only day A BEST getting no. 1 (the rest went to Distance). A BEST ended up being no. 1 that week. Back then (and even now) I could not believe that A BEST could beat Distance sales when the latter album had six days at the top of the chart for that week. Of course, as a fan for both artists, I didn't really care what's going on behind the scene because ayu and hikki both got weekly no. 1 in the end.

Of course there's always a possibility that a single day sales could affect the overall weekly sales... But usually that happens during the 1st week.

2) Mirrorcle World was the 2nd time. Obviously avex couldn't control SCS's sales, but they could affected the sales by giving tons of goodies outside the concert hall. On the other hand, I must consider that ayu's hardcore fans joined the force pretty well during that moment. Without their support during the weekend (especially on the last day of the weekly sales), I wouldn't think MW could beat SCS in the end.

Of course I'm not really sure if avex will really go that far for the sake of her streak, and I trust that ayu's fans will be in berserk mode if anything goes wrong this time (i.e., buy more copies in order to save her streak). I trust avex's calculation for this one.

Ayu will get number 1 for sure, I'm sure japan's overbearingly sick of kumi's innocent acts and ballads, especially when they're not good.

Better this way. ayufans will do their thing.


Also, it makes things more interesting!! :lech I was falling asleep until today!! can't wait to see the outcome next week :luv2:thud

I love ayu & kuu so, good luck to both of them!

^^Well, kuu is not that bad, and your comment can apply to ayu as well (for those who hate ayu). The thing is, in avex's view, kuu will not die if she doesn't get no. 1 since she doesn't have that damn "no. 1 streak" to hold on. (Of course it'll be a bonus for kuu if she gets no. 1). On the other hand, everyone (who concerns about artists' no. 1 streaks) is having their eyes on the chart, to see whether ayu will be able to hold and break the record for the next two weeks. Ayu does need the no.1 to survive somehow.

If ayu couldn't get #1 next week, avex just wouldn't release kuu's single obviously.
They are on the same company so avex obviously know what they are doing =P

Heh ! her index keeps going down but i don't care this chart ! hope she'll do good on Oricon!

oh actually i dun really care about this chart as much as I used to. :P Back then it might be able to predict ayu's sales. But after Secret or so, it is just not good for predictions anymore..

We have the same thought... but to tell you the truth... somehow deep in my mind, I'm kinda afraid to see how we will react if kuu gets no. 1 on the first day (touch wood... I dun wanna see that happens...). I'm sure avex will do something, at the same time AHS will be in chaos...

Suki de x3 is the superior single for me but I'm sure it will chart at #2 or below. Well...she COULD get #1 daily....and then...if there's any threat Avex just has to ship less for the rest of the week....and if Kumi publicly opposes it or anything....it'll be like the JYJ situation where they will probably turn on her. :( Sad world.

In my opinion crossroad is sooooooooo much better than Suki dex3...it deserves to get the number 1

I dun think kuu will do anything at all. I bet she has known about the circumstance since the beginning, and if she really gets a single day no. 1, it'll be a big compliment for her.

Me too.
crossroad is awesome and melancholic ballads for me always win typical ones. :D
(Unless if they are bad)

maybe avex wants kuu's name written in history for breaking ayu's streak.. :lech

I believe Ayu can do it!
whatever happens between avex and JYJ, just whatever!!
It won't affect Ayu's sales at all! I mean JJ's fans would just help her to boost her sales, but not about holding the no. 1 top oricon chart bcoz we all know she can do it on her own and with her fans' helps!

If that's the case, then we have nothing to say :thud.

And... hehehe... maybe ayu will follow JYJ to break up w/ avex... :P

^It's a win/win situation for Avex...
If Ayu wins, she is a step closer to break Seiko's record and at tied with her if L don't get 1st...

If Koda wins, she will be the almight singer who broke Ayumi Hamasaki record, and they will make Ayumi role as the company image smaller, what is useful for them cuz they are being forced to bet almost on the same horse since 2000... A horse that is losing appeal with teenagers and that is not giving 40% of they profit in a long time now...

the Gazette <33

Go Ayu, good luck!

Love that ayu's #1, but I'm so happy Gazette is #3, I love them also! XD

Yes!! Sugoiiii

I really like both singles but really hope that Ayu takes the no1 for the first week. Kuu can have the second week! Haha...

I bet though, that Avex will do whatever is possible to boost sales for Ayu until the 51st single, especially with this JYJ controversy at the moment. They need positive media so expect freebies and *maybe* a secret live performance the day L is released to push it over the line. Something like that will guarantee her no1...

so close btw ayumi and koda kumi. i love both songs but i hope Ayu can continue the No.1 streak. *finger crossed*

thanks for sharing ^^
i come back to school and i will haven't enough time for comment in the forum but i will visit,sure~ u_________u
good bye~!!!
*crying*

not bad, kinda wish it were higher...

ayu did bring more profit (at least overall sales) in all of these years (maybe except for 2006-2007).

ayu is their most profitting female artist for 1999-2005 and 2008-2009 (and might be this year as well).

She is like one of the top selling (overall) artists every year.
They are still riding on this horse since it's their best bet.

^^Wasn't ayu responsible for almost 50% of Avex's revenue at one point?

Yeah, that was in her peak in 2001 and also when sales in general were way better.

When u have only 1 bet, u r totally screwed when that only bet fails... I wouldn't be surprised if Avex biggest problem with Ayu was how much they depend on her.... this is not about "how much they love their biggest star", this is marketing, and considering a lot of stuff Ayu said and produced on the past years, the honeymoon between Avex and their most successful artist ended a long time ago... They are trying to make her less important to their anual incomme since A Best, so, it's not like they would be all that sad and depressed if Koda stoped Ayu's streak... actually, it would be pretty positive for them if the one who beat Ayu was also an Avex star...

I think that it would be smarter (if at all) after she has got the record and not right before that, it would be really stupid.

Also, they (avex) don't try to make her less important.
They still and will probably always try to make the best out of her along with the others.
She naturally became less "important" since her peak each year, like kumi since her own peak.

^Yeah, they do xD Even the release of A Best was they trying to end her peak, make the most money of it and get another new face as soon as possible...

In the end of the day, what does Avex lose if Ayu doesn't break Seiko's record? I can see where does Ayu lose (and still, not that important), but I fail at seeing what does Avex lose... But I can see what do they win putting 2 of their biggest starts to debut a single on the same day (they have a good chance of getting rival fanbases buying singles like there's no tomorrow), and I can see how can they take advantage of the end of her streak... Good for them she is a major selling force, but what company wants to depend on only 1 product?

I hope Ayu will get #1! 好きで､好きで､好きで｡ is being quite successful (it's been in 着うた® top 5 since it came out), while crossroad has flopped... No doubt it's gonna be a tough competition for the top spot :yes

It took them 4 years in order to get new face though. =P

Ironically though, I am... which was released after A BEST is the album with most singles (taking out re-cut ones or 2nd with re-cuts).

most of her albums since then were pretty invested to.

And all of those years when they worked really hard keeping her streak up.

It took them 4 years cuz they need a lot more than just marketing and a big budget to turn a pop singer into the new face of pop to a generation :B They tried really hard with Ai Otsuka anyway (and she never showed much interest on the role xD)

And really, we can't really know how much of what happens is made by Ayu and her staff, Max Matsura inside Avex or the entire Avex... we only saw the numbers, but in the end of the day, we have no idea of what (or who) caused them

Over the years she also got her number of songs reduced on A-nation (and they gave her more songs again after that) for example... Of course they are not going to shot her on the head just to get rid of them... and considering I am... it's her album with the biggest impact on Japan, considering that even if Duty it's her best selling, I am... has the most singles and it's her album with the biggest amount of her signature songs... ironically, when they tryied to end her peak, they caused it instead xD

I'm quite nervous still because of the JYJ situation that popped up 24 hours ago...

Even if crossroad is a sweet song I actually think (for the first time) that Kuu have a better one with 好きで､好きで､好きで. But I will keep my fingers crossed for Ayu. Kuu can get the 1# spot later on when herself is on a streak or something. :P Lol.

Exactly, and since then I think that they developed a certain attitude like, there is their ayu, and their other most successful artist of the period.

Something like ayu+ai ayu+kumi, ayu+EXILE (excluding namie since her management is Vision Factory). It's like they will always ride on the ayu "horse" while they will also invest in someone else or try to bring someone fresh and new.
kumi for example joined to that since 2005.

^I would find it easier to believe if there weren't so many magazines calling Otsuka "The New Ayumi Hamasaki" when Planetarium got big at first xD

Not since Matsuura's in charge ^^ Her concerts are still more expensive than a-nation and all of their other artist's concerts. They send her away all over the world to record albums and PVs, while only Ku got the similar during her per peak (and it was only for the PVs). Ayu's the only AVEX artist who got to shoot numerous PVs with huge budget even though she isn't the most popular thing in Japan and even at the time Otsuka and Kumi were more popular. If they are looking for a new face, they are failing badly ^^ So my question is, how is it that avex is trying to replace her? Yes sooner or later they will need another new face to compete with Kana and other new artists, but so far avex still has some of the best selling female artists Ayu, Namie and Ku and they don't really need anyone else, although more money can never hurt you :P

I don't wanna sound rude, but take all the JYJ/DBSK talk as far away from here as possible, Ayu fans don't care and they are the ones buying the single, she won't have probs getting that #1.

We also don't know how much of ayu's budget comes from Avex or from herself, do we? As she never stated "oh, Avex gave me this amount of money to do this, and this amount to do that!" Some of her huge budget videos are more on the ego trip side than as something with garanted profit, like Green for example... If Avex is pumping Ayu with money, I wonder why her recent concerts seen to have a bigger budget than her peak concerts, for example^^

i hate that many people still think that avex control MW sales...
for me it's not avex that control it...

but the japan fanbase, i believe when they know that MW is in danger, i think they unite and maybe buy 2 copies per person...and it's logic that she got high sales...

don't underestimate the power of japan fanbase...

that's my opinion...

Some people just seen to think that Avex controls everything, everytime xD They created earth and sky above it...

I didnt realize you spoke for all Ayu fans.
Not a DBSK/JYJ fan by anymeans but bringing them up is sort of relevant since the suspension of activities announcement. Who knows if their fans will start buying their stuff like crazy; its unlikely but who knows. Anyhow, don't forget that Avex is relying on DBSK fans aswell to buy crossroads. The sudden increase in preorders upon the anouncement of JJ's involvement is proof.

Alot of people were calling Jasmine the new Utada and as much as I like her, how did that help? I don't know how Otsuka Ai can replace Ayumi or her achievments.

I hope so!
I want to believe Ayu's Japanese fanbase to help Ayu to be no. 1 on top chart with the 2 new singles!

I'm not saying Ai Otsuka was trying to replace Ayumi or her archievments, but she was being marketed that way, anyway, as a replacement... The same way there's a huge hype about Lady Gaga being the "new" Madonna, for example

LOL...yeah AVEX is like a GOD in this forum...

I think that the media is one the who actually made ai and all ayu vs. x the new ayu.
The nedia always made the "rivals'' or "new ayu" nonsense, rather than the company.

What doesn't mean the company can't take advantage from it (A Best vs Distance)... or that the Company can't take part on creating this while negociating the artist appearences on magazines... (what is kinda easy, actually)

Anyway... I think we are far away from the subject of the thread now xD Let's end this discussion here... If u want to keep it, send me a PM so the thread can go back to it's course^^

uhhh that spots reserved for L
XD LOL

I hope she can break the streak and then her single releases will be relaxing from now on...

maaan, i'm so much more worried about L

avex can control ayu's sales.... by adding more special versions and such... or.... the WORST WAY IS:
if they were really THAT desperate, they might just follow taiwan style and paid their own staff to buy their own artist's cd. Taiwan had this 'buying the chart' thing going on for years, that's why i don't trust their chart anymore.

My, my....how polite you are.
Do you realise that japan actually love kuu's ballads. Her ballads are rated much higher then her upbeat songs among japanese's polls. please do your homework before typing.
And i happen to like kuu's ballads MORE then her upbeat songs, her ballads have higher play counts then the upbeat songs on my itunes.

don't feed that person's appetite, you're too good to give attention to someone like that.

I didn't know Taiwan did that, that's interesting. it's happened in Korea too.

it's slightly lower than the 2 previous single NINKIs, but i wish ayumi all the luck for next week :)

I'm having a hard time believing Avex is trying to kill Ayu's streak via Kumi because if they wanted Ayu to fail, they would have let her fail on her anniversary. A #2 album and a #2 anniversary single would sure knock Ayu off her thrown a lot quicker than Kumi could. Them waiting for the right moment to pin them against each other doesn't really make sense either. They could have done it any time before now if they were so desperate to end her streak. Hell, they would have pinned them against each other during MOON/blossom or if they really wanted to start a fight, against Kumi against L.

I also don't agree that they only depend on Ayu and she's the only horse they're riding. They have other artists that have made a hell of a lot more than Ayu since her peak. EXILE, Kumi, Namie, Tohoshinki, Ai Otsuka all have brought in a lot of revenue through out the years. Ayu is hardly the only one they depend on. But she is their most "prized possession." Having Ayu smash the record would only bring Avex bragging rights and maybe more money. They're not going to knock her down and risk losing money just so they can replace her with another horse to ride on. That makes no sense.

If she were the ONLY big artist at Avex, I'd understand. But she's not. They have a pretty large amount of them and they only get more and more every day it seems.

You don't know what you're talking about, do you? Japan is about the KAWAIIness. If I was not a fan of Ayu's, I could say the exact same thing about her, "I'm sure Japan's overbearingly sick of Ayu's innocent acts and ballads". That's how the general netizens probably perceive her.

Besides, ballads in general is the main seller, even if I personally prefer her more upbeat and sexy songs.

Mama Internet always says 'don't feed the trolls' guys. xD

Jeez, was that trolling? Dammit, I'm still too new at this XD

Thanks to a little birdie advise, I'll be ignoring that random idiot.

Hoo hoo!!! I can't wait to get my cd! I'll be buying L jacket B when I'm in Tokyo next month!!!

I didn`t say they are planning to destroy her or something, only that they are trying to make her less powerful over the years... And I never said she is their only big star... but she is their face... and IMO they wan't her to be less powerful cuz the most important she is, the most power she owns over the label... this and the fact that as a product, pop singer aren't very durable

She may still be their face, but if they're making money what's the big deal? :shrug

I'm a little tired so I hope this example makes sense. With the Coca Cola brand, they have a lot of different kinds of Cola now. Different flavors, diet, zero etc. They even sell water now. All of which they get revenue from. But Coca Cola is still the "face" of Coca Cola. It's still their major product. They're not going to make less of it because they might be depended on it a little bit. They're going to continue making money off it and all the others. If Coke naturally becomes less popular and... I dunno... Coca Cola Cherry (ew) makes a big boom, they're STILL not going to get replace Coke as their main product.

I don't know lol. In short, I humbly disagree baby. Love you though :shughug.

I was saying that the Ayu fans who purchased her previous singles prolly couldn't care less about JJ appearing in the PV and that they will still get the single regardless of all the DBSK drama. And for the love of god, it's crossroad without S!

Well since the majority of the money Ayu earns goes right to avex's bank account, I don't personally see that many motives for her to spend that much money on promoting something without seeing much of that money coming back where it came from. As for the concerts, I am guessing the sponsors play a large roll, but I personally don't think Ayu is paying out of her own pocket, but who knows. All I am saying that to avex she is still highly profitable, yet some day they will need someone to in a way take her place (learn loads of cash).

Well... they aren't relying on only 1 product, and their main product is not a 30+ years old popstar where women over 25 are considered to be old

And it also isn't a person... soda can't bash their own company or overpower their decisions... Ayumi Hamasaki can bash Avex (as alterna proved) and can use her power and her image against them, or to get whatever she want there (this we can't know if she did xD). Anyway, I said I was stopping with this subject! u.ú This is ur fault I came back to it! u.ú
(luv ya! <3)

CROSSROADS CROSSROADS CROSSROADS! *runz*
xD

I'm not sure she pays out of pocket for anything to be honest. But no one really knows. And yeah, someone will obviously replace her one day but that would because of fans not necessarily Avex.

(Okay then one last thing)

She's went against Avex with A BEST, alterna, ourselves etc. etc. etc. and they STILL made money off it. She could probably blatantly say "Avex are money-hungry scum bags" and if they make money off it they probably won't care. Money = power to Avex so as long as Ayu brings in the money, she has the power to say what she wants. I don't think they really care. However, if her words tanked sales (outside of natural decline) I could see them taking action against her. But not even Kumi's verbal slip caused Avex to go against her for good. She still sells out concerts and still gets funding to do what she wants. So I doubt Ayu's songs or anti-avex videos will cause them to want to break her streak lol.

number 1.. great! but only 86k?? I expected at least 100k cuz seems it's having more pre-orders than MOON_blossom and You were..._BALLAD

Oh, the more I read, the more I'm getting nervious about this situation.
I was about to think, that Avex controlls everything, but after all that I've read, I understand, that I failed XD

Nevertheless, I still hope, that Avex decided to make this "artificial" battle on purpose.
To my mind, Avex want to make Ayu win in this Diva-battle.

These are not the sales, they're just (not so accurate) predictions. If I'm not mistaken, the way they work is by surveying a group of people whether they would buy the singles, am I right?

^Yep. That's all it is. The NINKI position for Berryz Kobo last single for example projected them to be in the top five for that week but the single kinda tanked and they barely made top #10. So yeah, it's a good rough projection for interest but not necessarily accurate.

yes. They ask 400 people.

Saying it in red:
NINKI DOES NOT PREDICT SALES
Generally, they're good for figuring out who will get #1 or #2, but other than that... it's up in the air.

I can't wait for this wednesday, i hope ayu can sell more than kuu

If you really believe that avex has nothing to do about MW's sales, then it's okay. As I said before, her hardcore fans were one big force to save MW. But if avex didn't make any action at all, I dun think MW would be saved in the end. Those goodies (buy 2 versions to get a poster blah blah, and buy all versions to get another blah blah) are baits to lure fans to buy more copies. The unusually boost from the last day sales was quite a miracle to me.

It's not only avex having this kinda power. All companies do. It's easy to see that by looking at those artists' No. 1 streaks as an example. They may not manipulate the charts (like... asking the employees to buy cds), but they had the rites to pick on dates that those who has no. 1 streaks will not face tough competitors. Those no. 1 streaks (including ayu's) are actually a joke to me sometimes. Of course B'z no. 1 streak is never broken, how can it be when they release singles are the time when there's no competitor at all? KinKi Kids can still have the Guinness World Records because their company making sure that they won't face Arashi or AKB48 or whoever that can bring them down.

Oh well anywayz... yeah that's just my opinion. I should close this debate again because I dun wanna turn this into an ugly argument :P. It will be my fault if it ends up like that :).

Bad, bad, bad Blugie... u.ú (but I agree with u anyway xD)

Everything you're saying is true.
It's not a bad thing though (the part with the goods & gifts) it's just a strategy they had to use and it succeeded. So it's pretty cool. =D

congrats ayu hope you'll keep that no 1!

I wonder if the NINKI for L will be higher...?

^ it definately will. I really hope L can crack 200K or maybe 150K for this time.

And the promo for L ?

#1, but not a huge lead. I hope it's enough though!

what about NINKI index for L??

I suppose it will come tomorrow

That's right, shouldn't there be a NINKI for L by now? :o ^Oh ok