like i said in the Arashi thread, avex wouldn't put Ayu against JE unless she could beat them (ie. she could definitely go against TOKIO and Tackey & Tsubasa. but KAT-TUN? Arashi? that's some hefty competition there. in fact, it wouldn't even be one. she'll get #2 without a doubt! she would need to break 350k first week to be a threat).
and yeah, that Arashi release date is a RUMOR. nothing's set in stone.
...and if KinKi Kids were to lose their single streak, all hell will break loose.