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Originally Posted by orbitalaspect
This is about as practical as it gets. Party Queen, for example, was placed against ABC because it didn't seem likely ABC would get a #1 and Avex wasn't interested in pushing marketing for PQ. Had she been up in a week against Koda or someone else, Ayumi would have been guaranteed a lower position on the charts because her sales are skydiving at this point.
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Ayu was put against Koda not to long ago, during the 50th singles project, and even so, it's not like she was all that promoted... The only song on the series with TV during it's release was Crossoroad. Koda and Ayumi sales are more or less the same these days, even with different promotional aproaches, and it's hard to know who will sell 10k more than the other until it happens...
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PQ's promotion efforts were definitely not up to par with prior releases. But, like you're implying, the sales drop cannot be attributed as much to a lack of promotion as it can to the fact that Ayumi really didn't have much on the release calendar for 2011. When an artist is out of the spotlight for awhile, their sales are definitely affected unless a massive amount of promotion is done or fans are really demanding a major comeback for the artist. The amount for PQ simply wasn't enough to curve low sales. And that happens. But it's more of an Avex problem and not an Ayumi problem.
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I don't think it's about how much she is on the spotlight, but about people don't really caring enough to buying her stuff... In other words, she is depending on her core fanbase for a while now. And again, we can't forget PQ was promoted mostly on meeting events, that were meant to sell albums as fans who wanted to get closer needed to buy copies. Oricon doesn't count 100% of those sales, so, the album probably done a little better than we expect.
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Overexposed is overexposed. It harms whether you're popular or not. This is really why, for example, Justin Bieber isn't selling 20 million copies of every record. It's not that fans wouldn't buy it, it's that the people who would otherwise be interested in Bieber are tired of seeing him everywhere and grow to resent him and everything related to him. I agree that promotion on par with I am... and Duty would actually kill her career at this point, but promotion on par with MY STORY or (miss)understood would help revive it. This is still a question of Avex though, not something Ayumi can really change herself.
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If people are pretty much tired of your face, being on TV everytime is superexposition... During My Story or (miss)understood eras Ayu was performing around 20~30 times on TV every year. The most I can agree having 2 or 3 lives per single wouldn't hurt, 5, 6 lives per single as she was used to do is A LOT. She never really gave her image a rest until now, unlike Namie or Utada who always took some time to themselves.
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Part of BEST FICTION's success is that Namie had not released an actual Best Compilation in almost 10 years. So, having gone through this huge shift in music style, fans ate it up because the album truly was a demanded comeback for Namie. Just look at 60s 70s 80s. The fact that Namie found a way to integrate her earlier pop leanings with her new R&B style is what fans wanted from her, and the public practically ate then regurgitated that single then ate it again.
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Namie's 2nd peak wasn't a promotional strategy miracle, her popularity was giving signals of reviving for a while before she exploded, and once she started slowly gaining more and more attention, her promotions started to increase. Even so, they never really got Ayu-like level... She did one or another live for her singles unless they got big, and still, no overload. She as been touring since forever and I can't even remember her last TV live. It's not like she had a mystical solution to her low popularity, she just kept trying new stuff and eventually things started paying off.
Some overpromoted releases sold poorly, some underpromoted releases sold great... there are far more things involved than just what her marketing team did.
There's no step-by-step guide to revive your popularity, and if there were one, people wouldn't eventually get lower sales... She is releasing a compilation now... I don't think it's good timing for a "career reviving best" either, but I also don't think this is the plan... They seen to be trying get money from older songs, maybe keep her streak of years with #1 albums, or even measuring the reception on the public to plan what to do with her anniversary... Maybe it will sell bad... But it's not like the public care about her enough right now for a bad selling album hurting her image or anything.
Very good points too^^