hmmn... somehow I dun think ayu can be compared to madonna at this stage. madonna went thru lot more (like she was one of the worst in the beginning of 90's). She gained back some popularity after the film "Evita", and up till now madonna is like the "golden statue" in the american music industry. Ayu on the other hand hasn't arrived to this state yet. It will take probly at least 5 or 6 years to get to that state (assuming the popularity will be similar to the current...).
Of course, retiring is a way to make herself as a "etneral statue". I mean, right now she's still popular and it could be the right time to walk down the stage. It's not about struggling to survive in the industry. Fight to stay and be as shiny as before in the music industry is quite hard, but close the curtain herself to end the business is harder I guess. If she is going to retire this year or so, she will be another momoe yamaguchi (spelling?). That's what people think about ayu's retirement. Everyone will remember ayu, the fashion queen of japan, one of the queens of jpop during late 90's and early 00's.
So, ayu can retire to make the name "ayumi hamasaki" as the eternal glory. She can also fight against some odds to stay in the industry (I think struggle is a bit off for ayu. she's not struggling right now...). Either she will become the japan madonna later (not super popular but people respect this female artists), or in a worse case... she will become the second seiko (I think struggle is more appropriate for seiko.. hehe). I'm not tryin' to be mean... Seiko was so popular during 80's and probly early 90's... but look at the current seiko... her new music never reaches top 10... she should be around 40 something but has to make her image like early 20s just because young images suits the audience in Japan (at least that's what she thinks... >_>). I dun really wanna see ayu going to this state in about 10 years...
Of course... a better way (my imagination... hehe)... Ayu releases several super smash hits in these two years (er.. sales are like SEASONS, M, etc... or even up to namie's can you celebrate?). And then she retires... She's not momoe anymore... not even momoe can reach to this state... she is AYUMI HAMASAKI!!!!