Secret: Sales Prediction?

[Mad_Cactuar]

Predict the first, second and third week sales and the total sales for the three first week here.

Example:

Week 1: 999,999
Week 2: 099,999
Week 3: 009,999

Total: 1,109,997

Let's see who's the psychic here.. Come on now everyone, give it a shot! Editing your posts after the 25th will warrant instant disqualification. No prizes though.

The person who guess the closest amount wins. Four winners will be chosen from the three categories.

Here's mine in any case.

Week 1: 483,000
Week 2: 163,000
Week 3: 097,000

Total: 743,000

First Week Winners: pop909 and Fair Wind (+14,000)

[..:Hot:Like:Wow:..]

Week 1: 700 000
Week 2: 250 000
Week 3: 100 000

Total: 950 000 in 3 weeks. *wishes*

[truehappiness]

O_o;

I think that the sales for the first week might be higher than 500k.. :O

[Taki]

Week 1: 650,000
Week 2: 400,000
Week 3: 150,000

Total: 1,200,000

[Mad_Cactuar]

Then you might wanna predict if you think you're right. I don't believe it'll pass 450,000 so I'm being generous. I believe Secret can pull it off.

[truehappiness]

Well, Secret has been charting pretty high for a long while now on the daily sales charts of CDJapan / neowing / HMV / Amazon.

I really don't want to predict, as it's really odd how Ayu's sales work D:

[DA1SUK1DAY01691]

Week 1: 680 000
Week 2: 325 000
Week 3: 104 000
(after all 3): 1 109 000

Total: 1 400 000

I have really high expectations for this album. It has that bonus poster, a really attractive cover if they make it shiny, and enough album tracks to make it worth buying (technically, 1LOVE/JEWEL are album tracks, we just knew about them WAY ahead of time). This'll be her "comeback" album.

[Mad_Cactuar]

LOL. Some of you are so cute. It reminds of me during the (miss)understood era. Predicting super high amounts and then feeling crushed by the actual sales.

Actually, Ayu's sales aren't very odd. They're just declining like a linear equation. Something like...

y = -3x + 500

[DA1SUK1DAY01691]

Originally Posted by Mad_Cactuar

LOL. Some of you are so cute. It reminds of me during the (miss)understood era. Predicting super high amounts and then feeling crushed by the actual sales.

Actually, Ayu's sales aren't very odd. They're just declining like a linear equation. Something like...

y = -3x + 500

haha. well, this is pretty much just estimations, but i think it'll easily outsell (m)u. (m)u only had like what, 6 album tracks with lyrics, but 4 were basically borrowed from SWEETBOX, techincally making it 2 REAL album tracks.

this album will most likely feature about 7 to 8 album tracks, just around MY STORY's amount, and it sold 1 000 000 in about a month. Well, not only does this album have REALLY awesome covers, it has the poster (which i stated in my previous post ) and the DVD comes packed with stuff (7 [3] PV + 7 Making off shots) that we didn't see yet, which makes it all the more exciting and makes people buy the product. I have a feeling this'll be one of her best so far.

[..:Hot:Like:Wow:..]

I actualy predicted lower than what I really think, I'm actualy on the same par as Takeshi.

[truehappiness]

I wonder if the progression will be like Memorial address' or MY STORY's..

Memorial address:
524,028 (1st week sales)
306,521 (2nd week sales)
63,471 (3rd week sales)
36,190 (4rth weeks sales)
24,121 (5th week sales)
17,520 (6th week sales)
11,479 (7th week sales)
9,993 (8th week sales)
total so far: 993,323 <-- [in the 10th week, it hit million]

MY STORY:
MY STORY- Week-1 Position: 1 Sales: 574,321
Week-2 Position: 3 Sales: 194,556
Week-3 Position: 3 Sales: 190,471
Week-4 Position: 4 Sales: 38,792

Total: 998140
[obviously it got to a million in within about 5 weeks ]

(Someone smart wouldn't 'joke' that it would sell one copy in the first week, when obviously many are preordering every single day D: )

[truehappiness]

The thing is, that wouldn't even make sense :|

She would have to be at the very bottom of any preorder chart / expectancy chart.

And as of now, the ORICON STYLE has placed her at first in the NINKI ranking with a full '10' stars [Dunno what that means but it really sounds good..] and apparently people are loving the CD / CD+DVD covers too!

[~X2RADialbomber~]

Week 1: 321,000
Week 2: 153,000
Week 3: 010,000

Total: 474,000

[Kobayashiwoof]

Originally Posted by ~X2RADialbomber~

Week 1: 321,000
Week 2: 153,000
Week 3: 010,000

Total: 474,000

Your sales prediction was probably the best one IMO =D I wonder if Namie's Queen of Hip-Pop Album will outsell Secret probably wont but will be close

[..:Hot:Like:Wow:..]

Originally Posted by DavidG

Your sales prediction was probably the best one IMO =D I wonder if Namie's Queen of Hip-Pop Album will outsell Secret probably wont but will be close

ahhhh Oookay, week 2 and 3 make so much sence.

[..:Hot:Like:Wow:..]

X2Rad, I bet an arm and a leg it will sell higher, unless your thinking of Kuu sales.

To truehappiness,

YOU ARE SO AWESOME!!!

I have high expectations for this album and Kylie and Gwen's new albums.

[*Petit*]

At least ayu's album will be good probably. =P


um.. I really have no clue, but I believe it will be along the lines of MY STORY;

550.000
220.000
150.000
_______
920.000....

[truehappiness]

Oh, and here's some proof of the NINKI thing:

発売中のoricon styleのNINKI度ランキングでayuのSecretが早くも１位（★10個）になってます。ちなみ に★10個は最高ランクです。かなり期待できますね！！ジャケットもかなりお気に入りです。

It is a ranking at each oricon style under the sale NINKI and Secret of ayu is already 1st place (10stars). By the way, ten stars is the highest rank possible. It is possible to expect it considerably. The jacket is also considerably favorite.

I wonder if (m)u debuted at 500k+ plus.. it probably did, since that would mean that the other 150k might've been 2nd week, and that seems a little too high for a 2nd week.. :O

[truehappiness]

Well, people could also say the same for Koda's album, but people will still buy it :| [actually, you could say that for anyone's album LOL]

Ayu will probably debut VERY high.. and those thinking she won't hit no.1 and will get beat out by Keita Tachibana / Nami Tamaki's BEST.. are insane!

There will probably be some random surge later on in sales due to the January 1st '2 week' count of ORICON sales~ <3

So which weeks will those be for Secret?

[Mad_Cactuar]

Plus (m)u has a photobook and look at the drop rate in the second week which was very scary and big like the Grand Canyon.