NINKI's rating is NOT a sales prediction. It's a point value that comes from four groups of people that subscribe to Oricon Style being polled about the coming week's releases. (4 groups of people in their teens, twenties, thirties, and forties, I believe.)
Quote:
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- In the survey for anticipation (Ninki), Oricon does a research of their subscribers (87,000 people approx), out of which they take a random sample of 400 people. The survey is about "interest or degree of interest" and "purchase or degree of intention of purchase", and the results are put exponentially. The people who take part in the survey are from 10 to 40 years old, and there's the same proportion of men and women. (source)
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There used to be more data about NINKI but nowadays it's just a very simple chart.
More often than not, the artists who are favored by subscribers do very well in the NINKIs. (they usually have a yearly popularity ranking which Ayu almost never appears on)