[Charts & Rankings] The Official Oricon Thread ~MOON/blossom~

[KarenPang]

Originally Posted by roanmy

Well it COULD be released later than the 8th, couldn't it? I know a lot of people are saying they're going to be in three consecutive months, but has that been confirmed anywhere, or have I missed something?

not that I know of

I don't think it was stated that her 48th - 50th singles will be released a month after the other

but I could be wrong about this

[AyumiAi]

And she will promoto this single so that means sales will most likely be higher than
Moon/blossoms imo.

[jbrat2219]

I wonder how hards fans would push to get her #1 if she went up against a big seller. Not someone who's impossible to surpass but who is just selling a little better than she is now. Would you all buy 10 copies?

[AyumiAi]

I would buy it if i was allowed T.T my parents would not allow me to spend 100+ dollars on one single XP but i would be able to buy 3 copies of the single so basically oen of every version if its 2 cd and 1 cd and dvd XP

[inspire_rmx]

i want her to break the record with her 50th single so badly. definitely not a easy feat. hopefully Avex will plan the releases well =) of cos with great amazing songs and PVs as well

[ストロボ・EdGE]

t2m went on to sell 100K... I wonder if MOON/blossom will get there too.
Even though it passed first week sales barely.

[Bigtop]

We still have no word from Avex yet, so it's possible that it could be released later in September than the 1st...

[adantatu2]

Originally Posted by miskiq

EXILE is also releasing their new single on 2010/09/15

08/04 SMAP
08/11 Perfume/fukuyama masaharu/tokio
08/18 AKB48
08/25 Kanjani8
----
09/01 V6
09/08 GLAY
09/15 EXILE

Mmm poor ayu, they are so strong!!!!!

[YukasMx_TA]

Originally Posted by LadyAlterna

how dare you doubt the goddess! she will get her record no matter what!

LOL I didn't mean that... but I'm really excited! xD
O_O it will be tough but she can do it!
Maybe Sept 1st is the best option

[Bigtop]

Either September 1st, or September 22nd - but I'd say September 22nd may be the more SAFER choice... Or maybe later than that, maybe towards October or so... But still, at this pace, we can still get the 50th single sometime during December or so... Avex has NOT yet announced information about the release date yet, so stay calm... We'll just have to wait until Avex announces the release date for the 49th single, as I think we've got some "rough seas" ahead...

And we still have to wait about NEWS' "BE FUNKY" - they still don't have a release date either - this could actually be the turning point about when Avex should release Ayu's 49th single, because if she gets #2, she's just going to fail to reach Seiko Matsuda - by only one single...

[ayumisrael]

1st September is as safe as any other date.

V6 aren't a competition. Their last single sold around 63,000 (first week, 75,000 in total) and the one before that around 82,000 in total, ayu sells that total in a week/two weeks.

[Pieces_of_SEVEN]

^^I like 2010/09/01 for the release date...come on Avex!

[Bigtop]

With the fact that she's saying that "she's going to promote for the next two singles," I think she's going aggressive now! I think she was going conservative when she was doing her 48th single...

I hope that much promotion can translate into significant sales boost compared to her 48th single! (We're talking about MOON/blossom, which was her LOWEST #1 summer single due to lack of public promotion and too much bias towards the Arena Tour...)

[Kanzaki]

Originally Posted by jbrat2219

I wonder how hards fans would push to get her #1 if she went up against a big seller. Not someone who's impossible to surpass but who is just selling a little better than she is now. Would you all buy 10 copies?

Been thinking about this as well. I'm thinking some fans might be getting their checkbooks ready as we speak

I would buy 10 copies if I could, financially.

[AyuGAME]

Originally Posted by miskiq

EXILE is also releasing their new single on 2010/09/15

08/04 SMAP
08/11 Perfume/fukuyama masaharu/tokio
08/18 AKB48
08/25 Kanjani8
----
09/01 V6
09/08 GLAY
09/15 EXILE

after saw this list..i think 1st September will be the smartest choice...
it's risky but the chance is bigger than other dates
09/22 is way too long...because on October she will release another one...so most likely it will be 09/01, and if it's happen..i think this time i will support ayu and buy the Japan version, so crossroad will be my first JP version of ayu single...i will support ayu to beat seiko streak

[Bigtop]

So, here's the situation, to re-iterate: Nobody is even in the same zipcode as B'z for outright consecutive #1 singles, with 43. (And they're still active, so who knows when the streak will be over.)

But among any soloists, male or female, as well as any female artists, soloist or group, currently the streak right now (and which she held for almost eleven years) belongs to Seiko Matsuda, which currently have 24. Her last #1 in the streak came back in September of 1988, with "Tabidachi wa Freesia".

Currently Ayumi Hamasaki (commonly known as Ayu) is inches away from the record; she has 23 with the #1 release of the "MOON/blossom" single, despite lack of promotion due to the busy operations with her Arena Tour this year. If she makes #1 on her 49th single, that will tie the record for the most consecutive #1 singles in the history of Japanese pop among soloists and female artists.

But now, here's the thing: when are they going to release the 49th single? How are they going to title it? How many versions of the single will there be? And how will the tracklists appear for each of the versions? Already, we know that one of the songs will be "crossroad", and at least one version will have a CD+DVD version and at least one will be CD-only, as we already know of, but when will they release it out? It might not be how the single will be made up, the matter is about when they are going to release it.

Originally Posted by miskiq

EXILE is also releasing their new single on 2010/09/15

08/04 SMAP
08/11 Perfume/fukuyama masaharu/tokio
08/18 AKB48
08/25 Kanjani8
----
09/01 V6
09/08 GLAY
09/15 EXILE

Key to the quote above, I self-colored it:

Spoiler:

Dark red: WINDOW POSSIBLY CLOSED
Yellow: Possible, but there may be unexpected risks of streak broken, but Avex artist also
Orange: High risk of streak broken
Blue: Avex artist, maybe they are aware that the executives won't even put Ayu on that date

As we see, August might be too late. Usually, Ayu's releases come within a six-week advance notice, so August might be shut out. For September, the 8th might be risky, as GLAY would be releasing a single that time, and GLAY is still quite popular. (On my analysis, their last two singles ranked #2, but the sales are quite somewhere around where Ayu's "MOON/blossom" sales came, with the "Aka to Kuro no MATADORA / I LOVE YOU wo Sagashiteru" double A-side single selling 68,206, and "SAY YOUR DREAM" from last year sold higher than Ayu's "MOON/bloosom" sales at 78,380, so this can be a MAJOR threat, despite that their last #1 single, "VERB", was released back over two years ago back on June 2008.) September 8th might be scratched out, as Avex would be aware that GLAY is still quite popular, and so does the 15th, when EXILE is releasing a single; EXILE, a large 14-member group, is part of Avex's sub-label rhythm zone, which you might be familiar about, with Koda Kumi (Kuu), Goto Maki and even Sowelu is part of, and Max Matsuura might know about EXILE very well, and so does Avex, so the 15th is already reserved by another top Avex artist.

So the two possible options are these: September 1st, which is a safer choice despite that there's V6, a Johnny's artist who is part of Avex, or to somewhere on September 22nd or later, which may be even safer, as it is quite empty at this time.

V6 is really a Johnny's artist, but is actually part of Avex, so we don't know how Avex executives will act on, as both V6 and Ayu are signed to Avex, and we don't know how the conflict can bring. V6 was formed back in 1995 with six members, splitted into two groups called the "20th Century" and the "Coming Century", each with three members in the group. They're quite aging, and as someone said earlier, their sales are quite falling. Their last single release was a year ago on September 2nd with "GUILTY"; it was a #1, but it was quite low among Johnny's standards with less than 65,000 sold (62,941), showing its age. Also to consider was "Spirit", which was also #1, but only sold 64,975. V6's first album in over three years, "READY?", did not even get #1 - it only got #2, also selling less than 70,000 at 67,951, compared to Ayu's "Rock'n'Roll Circus" album, which sold 205,058 in the first week, which was still decent.

I still say that September 22nd or later is the safest choice, but I also put September 1st as the next available opportunity, despite V6 is quite struggling to keep up to today's Johnny's and general J-Pop music standards. V6 might not be up to the Johnny's standards, comparing to SMAP (last single: Sotto Kyutto / Super Star★, 104,723), NEWS (last single: Sakura Girl, selling 195,204), or even ARASHI (Troublemaker and Monster got over 540,000, while To be free last week got 425,978); V6 might be even in the same page as TOKIO, with their last single, "-Haruka-", got #1 but only with sales of 48,688, which is quite low. TOKIO was formed back in 1994, which means that they're also aging, though th. (And remember: TOKIO has Tomoya Nagase!)

But once again, we still have to see. Avex has NOT yet announced when Ayu's 49th single will come, so we'll just have to stay patient until it comes. But I think it would be a little bit too rushed if Avex announces that they would be releasing Ayu's 49th single on late August or September 1st! "MOON/blossom" had its announcement back on May 19th, which is two months prior to the release, so I think maybe September 1st may be a bit too late, but there may still be an opportunity for September 22nd.

Also, we still have to wait when NEWS' "BE FUNKY" will be released, but we don't have the word from Johnny's either.

With the fact that "MOON/blossom" takes two months from the time the announcement the single would come to the time the single releases, does anybody want to change their minds about talking about release dates? How about information about the past singles on how early did Avex plan out about new singles (e.g. "talkin' 2 myself", "glitter/fated", "You were... / BALLAD", "Rule/Sparkle", something like that)? Even "Sunrise / Sunset ~LOVE is ALL~" had its announcement back on June 29th and it would be released on August 12th last year, so I think September 1st may be a bit too late...

[greggerz189]

I was really surprised to find out that all the copies of MOON/blossom had sold out at the Tsutaya in Minami Osawa when I went on the first day! I didn't know she still had that sort of selling power, but I'm glad it reached #1 ^_^. MOON is such a good song.

[Ranma Matsuri]

Am I the only one finding this discussion a bit depressing? idk why but I still think this will be a late August release. But like everyone else said, Sept. 1st will be the safest choice. I don't particularly like how safe things are going but it is to secure the streak which she is VERY close to breaking afterall. I guess this is why we haven't gotten a release date yet.

I'm really wondering what they were thinking with the tour final thing. It was a given with the title and everything that they wanted to have the next 2 singles out by then but shortly after announcing it, it's like it suddenly dawned on them that: "hey maybe this isn't such a hot idea...". I don't think Avex was really paying any heed to the kind of tight schedule that would put Ayu on and that things like say PROMO for M/b would have to be pushed to the back burner. I guess they learned their lesson and will plan the next release accordingly since Ayu has promised more promo for the next single.

[Bigtop]

Originally Posted by Ranma Matsuri

Am I the only one finding this discussion a bit depressing? idk why but I still think this will be a late August release. But like everyone else said, Sept. 1st will be the safest choice. I don't particularly like how safe things are going but it is to secure the streak which she is VERY close to breaking afterall. I guess this is why we haven't gotten a release date yet.

I'm really wondering what they were thinking with the tour final thing. It was a given with the title and everything that they wanted to have the next 2 singles out by then but shortly after announcing it, it's like it suddenly dawned on them that: "hey maybe this isn't such a hot idea...". I don't think Avex was really paying any heed to the kind of tight schedule that would put Ayu on and that things like say PROMO for M/b would have to be pushed to the back burner. I guess they learned their lesson and will plan the next release accordingly since Ayu has promised more promo for the next single.

On the blue text, I kind of really agree with your opinion.

Planning is quite critical, as this would be a decision whether or not this single will be #1. Remember when "You were... / BALLAD" was about to release on December 16th but for two reasons they moved it back to the 29th (first Masaharu Fukuyama moved up release to the 16th, and then Ayu said that she was "not ready yet for release", based on her current work in the studio)? And remember that "Sunrise / Sunset ~LOVE is ALL~" took two and a half months from the announcement on June 29th to the actual release date on August 12th? And what about "MOON/blossom" - announcement on May 19th, fast forwarding two months to the release date of July 14th?

I think Avex's move from "50th single anniversary" to "7days special" was the right move because of those planning issues as well as how long it takes in average from the announcement of a new single to the release date of it! So maybe let's be sure for September 22nd, just to cross our fingers, or maybe later than that...

[PEARL]

isit out of top 30?! i can't find it.