NINKI index for crossroad

[SURREAL__RAINBOW]

Originally Posted by Ranma Matsuri

lol guys yeah the JYJ thing is unfortunate and had like the worst timing to happen (just days before the release) but seriously, she'll be ok. I doubt THAT many JYJ fans were going to buy the single anyway, it's the same as before: the fans will get her that #1 like we always do.

Better this way. ayufans will do their thing.


Also, it makes things more interesting!! I was falling asleep until today!! can't wait to see the outcome next week

I love ayu & kuu so, good luck to both of them!

[bluegie]

Originally Posted by freedreamer

^LOl..they can control? Unless they limit the number of copies of Kuu's CDs or..they rig the numbers which are both REALLY wrong. Can't really think of other ways. But lets just hope it'll allll go well for Ayu and may crossroad blossom Sry im not suggesting anything avex.

Hmmmn.. if breaking the record for ayu is avex's intention, then yes, they'll probly do something like that. Honestly this is not the first time this company playing tricks. I dunno about the other artists since I dun really follow their charts, but for ayu I can at least see two moments for that..

1) the second week of Distance vs. A BEST. The first day of the second week was the only day A BEST getting no. 1 (the rest went to Distance). A BEST ended up being no. 1 that week. Back then (and even now) I could not believe that A BEST could beat Distance sales when the latter album had six days at the top of the chart for that week. Of course, as a fan for both artists, I didn't really care what's going on behind the scene because ayu and hikki both got weekly no. 1 in the end.

Of course there's always a possibility that a single day sales could affect the overall weekly sales... But usually that happens during the 1st week.

2) Mirrorcle World was the 2nd time. Obviously avex couldn't control SCS's sales, but they could affected the sales by giving tons of goodies outside the concert hall. On the other hand, I must consider that ayu's hardcore fans joined the force pretty well during that moment. Without their support during the weekend (especially on the last day of the weekly sales), I wouldn't think MW could beat SCS in the end.

Of course I'm not really sure if avex will really go that far for the sake of her streak, and I trust that ayu's fans will be in berserk mode if anything goes wrong this time (i.e., buy more copies in order to save her streak). I trust avex's calculation for this one.

[ayuky]

Ayu will get number 1 for sure, I'm sure japan's overbearingly sick of kumi's innocent acts and ballads, especially when they're not good.

[majrakun]

Originally Posted by ayuky

Ayu will get number 1 for sure, I'm sure japan's overbearingly sick of kumi's innocent acts and ballads, especially when they're not good.

You don't know what you're talking about, do you? Japan is about the KAWAIIness. If I was not a fan of Ayu's, I could say the exact same thing about her, "I'm sure Japan's overbearingly sick of Ayu's innocent acts and ballads". That's how the general netizens probably perceive her.

Besides, ballads in general is the main seller, even if I personally prefer her more upbeat and sexy songs.

[brener]

number 1.. great! but only 86k?? I expected at least 100k cuz seems it's having more pre-orders than MOON_blossom and You were..._BALLAD

[majrakun]

Originally Posted by brener

number 1.. great! but only 86k?? I expected at least 100k cuz seems it's having more pre-orders than MOON_blossom and You were..._BALLAD

These are not the sales, they're just (not so accurate) predictions. If I'm not mistaken, the way they work is by surveying a group of people whether they would buy the singles, am I right?

[Kingdom]

Originally Posted by majrakun

These are not the sales, they're just (not so accurate) predictions. If I'm not mistaken, the way they work is by surveying a group of people whether they would buy the singles, am I right?

yes. They ask 400 people.

[truehappiness]

Originally Posted by brener

number 1.. great! but only 86k?? I expected at least 100k cuz seems it's having more pre-orders than MOON_blossom and You were..._BALLAD

Saying it in red:
NINKI DOES NOT PREDICT SALES

The NINKI ratings are the results of a poll conducted by Oricon indicating interest in an upcoming release. Although the ratings are never a true reflection of sales, it does give a strong prediction about where the single/album will place in terms of popularity amongst the Japanese public. having said so, they are NOT an indication of how it will perform in terms of chart positioning and total sales for the week.

Generally, they're good for figuring out who will get #1 or #2, but other than that... it's up in the air.

[bluegie]

^^Well, kuu is not that bad, and your comment can apply to ayu as well (for those who hate ayu). The thing is, in avex's view, kuu will not die if she doesn't get no. 1 since she doesn't have that damn "no. 1 streak" to hold on. (Of course it'll be a bonus for kuu if she gets no. 1). On the other hand, everyone (who concerns about artists' no. 1 streaks) is having their eyes on the chart, to see whether ayu will be able to hold and break the record for the next two weeks. Ayu does need the no.1 to survive somehow.

[ayumisrael]

If ayu couldn't get #1 next week, avex just wouldn't release kuu's single obviously.
They are on the same company so avex obviously know what they are doing =P

[sanzo2011]

Heh ! her index keeps going down but i don't care this chart ! hope she'll do good on Oricon!

[bluegie]

oh actually i dun really care about this chart as much as I used to. Back then it might be able to predict ayu's sales. But after Secret or so, it is just not good for predictions anymore..

Originally Posted by ayumisrael

If ayu couldn't get #1 next week, avex just wouldn't release kuu's single obviously.
They are on the same company so avex obviously know what they are doing =P

We have the same thought... but to tell you the truth... somehow deep in my mind, I'm kinda afraid to see how we will react if kuu gets no. 1 on the first day (touch wood... I dun wanna see that happens...). I'm sure avex will do something, at the same time AHS will be in chaos...

[Polyrhythm]

Suki de x3 is the superior single for me but I'm sure it will chart at #2 or below. Well...she COULD get #1 daily....and then...if there's any threat Avex just has to ship less for the rest of the week....and if Kumi publicly opposes it or anything....it'll be like the JYJ situation where they will probably turn on her. Sad world.

[bluegie]

Originally Posted by Polyrhythm

Suki de x3 is the superior single for me but I'm sure it will chart at #2 or below. Well...she COULD get #1 daily....and then...if there's any threat Avex just has to ship less for the rest of the week....and if Kumi publicly opposes it or anything....it'll be like the JYJ situation where they will probably turn on her. Sad world.

I dun think kuu will do anything at all. I bet she has known about the circumstance since the beginning, and if she really gets a single day no. 1, it'll be a big compliment for her.

[Mirrorcle Monster]

In my opinion crossroad is sooooooooo much better than Suki dex3...it deserves to get the number 1

[ayumisrael]

Originally Posted by Heavenly Zerase

In my opinion crossroad is sooooooooo much better than Suki dex3...it deserves to get the number 1

Me too.
crossroad is awesome and melancholic ballads for me always win typical ones.
(Unless if they are bad)

[AyUmIXx]

I believe Ayu can do it!
whatever happens between avex and JYJ, just whatever!!
It won't affect Ayu's sales at all! I mean JJ's fans would just help her to boost her sales, but not about holding the no. 1 top oricon chart bcoz we all know she can do it on her own and with her fans' helps!

[Andrenekoi]

^It's a win/win situation for Avex...
If Ayu wins, she is a step closer to break Seiko's record and at tied with her if L don't get 1st...

If Koda wins, she will be the almight singer who broke Ayumi Hamasaki record, and they will make Ayumi role as the company image smaller, what is useful for them cuz they are being forced to bet almost on the same horse since 2000... A horse that is losing appeal with teenagers and that is not giving 40% of they profit in a long time now...

[ayumisrael]

Originally Posted by Andrenekoi

^It's a win/win situation for Avex...
If Ayu wins, she is a step closer to break Seiko's record and at tied with her if L don't get 1st...

If Koda wins, she will be the almight singer who broke Ayumi Hamasaki record, and they will make Ayumi role as the company image smaller, what is useful for them cuz they are being forced to bet almost on the same horse since 2000... A horse that is losing appeal with teenagers and that is not giving 40% of they profit in a long time now...

ayu did bring more profit (at least overall sales) in all of these years (maybe except for 2006-2007).

ayu is their most profitting female artist for 1999-2005 and 2008-2009 (and might be this year as well).

She is like one of the top selling (overall) artists every year.
They are still riding on this horse since it's their best bet.

[Andrenekoi]

Originally Posted by ayumisrael

ayu did bring more profit (at least overall sales) in all of these years (maybe except for 2006-2007).

ayu is their most profitting female artist for 1999-2005 and 2008-2009 (and might be this year as well).

She is like one of the top selling (overall) artists every year.
They are still riding on this horse since it's their best bet.

When u have only 1 bet, u r totally screwed when that only bet fails... I wouldn't be surprised if Avex biggest problem with Ayu was how much they depend on her.... this is not about "how much they love their biggest star", this is marketing, and considering a lot of stuff Ayu said and produced on the past years, the honeymoon between Avex and their most successful artist ended a long time ago... They are trying to make her less important to their anual incomme since A Best, so, it's not like they would be all that sad and depressed if Koda stoped Ayu's streak... actually, it would be pretty positive for them if the one who beat Ayu was also an Avex star...