Secret: Sales Prediction?

[criminal]

Originally Posted by immel

I wonder which one is actually better.

Releasing a lot of material before the album release as promotion, or trying to keep more material exclusive for the album.

Both tactics can be good, but in the case of Kumiko, who has released an album that sold a lot, 16 singles in the span of 12 months, with two to come, it could backfire. But I'm sure it won't and Kumiko will be a happy camper.
People don't own that much material by Ayumi, so they're more-than-likely to buy the album. At least that's how I figure it could be.

[immel]

I agree, it will most likely not backfire as such, but it might have an effect, if minor but yet noticeable, on the sales.

Both Secret and BLACK CHERRY are potential million sellers, and the technique for releasing material has been pretty different, lets see how the result will come out.

By the way, you can delete posts by hitting edit and checking "delete post".

LOW.

[evolution7931]

Originally Posted by //hikari

LOW.

NAH AH! HIGH.

[Larisa-chan]

Week 1: 250,000
Week 2: 70,000
Week 3: 20,000
Week 4 7,000
_______________
Total: 347,000

I'm telling you I'll be shocked if this album breaks 500,000 copies in total.

[IYFreak]

wow it makes me kind asad setting such low sales for Ayu's album. Just because (m)u didn't sell "good". I definetly don't think this Ayu album will sell 500,000 or below in 3 weeks. It's like people are setting AYu's standards so low now. I wonder if people were guessing this low when A Song for XX was released. I for one will be happy if Ayu breaks 890,000. plus it also has Lesli's Good luck cover on it.^^

[Kikaru]

To be honest, I wouldn't expect it to pass a million, or I would be very surprised that it would pass a million. But passing 500K I can put my money on. I think having 500K for its first week and having around 100K ((M)U second week was very close to 100K) for second week would be a pretty good bet.

I think this album will probably sell around 850K-900K. Then again, this year's been different from the past two or three so things might be a bit different, good or bad...

out of curiosity, did any Original albums actually went over a million in 2006?

[ayu_fan929]

^Only Def Tech's "Catch The Wave".

[firefox]

it will do as good if not better than black cherry

[norain]

Oooooooooooh I wanna guess.

Week 1: 550,754 Sales
Week 2: 143,128 Sales
Week 3: 093,775 Sales
----------
Total: 787,657

An eventual million seller! (Along with Miss Understood making more sales too, like 3000 more sales, to make 888,000 beating UTADA HEEKARU! (hikaru). I think.

[darkswordz]

The release of Secret might help (m)u since the sales of A BEST raised as I am... is released

[truehappiness]

I wonder just where Secret might place in the top50 for ORICON..

I think she might sell more than LOVE COOK .. :O [top 10 plz <33]

[KyahRyorin]

First week: 410,000
Second week: 300,000
Third week: 210,000
Fourth week: 180,000

Total: 1.1 million.

I highly doubt it'll get THAT high in the first 4 weeks, but... we'll see...

[darkswordz]

ayu's album usually have a veri high first week and the sales usually drop alot every week =X

[truehappiness]

It doesn't drop that much..

But in comparison to the past.. yeah.

Ayumi Hamasaki
Rainbow

2002/12/30 # 1 ( 1,016,482 )
2003/01/13 # 1 ( 571,027 )
2003/01/20 # 3 ( 96,368 )
2003/01/27 # 3 ( 57,028 )
2003/02/03 # 7 ( 32,780 )
2003/02/10 # 16 ( 21,207 )
2003/02/17 # 22 ( 15,748 )
2003/02/24 # 26 ( 11,171 )
2003/03/03 # 37 ( 6,991 )
2003/03/10 # 59 ( 5,894 )
2003/03/17 # 74 ( 4,364 )
2003/03/24 # 56 ( 4,384 )
2003/03/31 # 110 ( 2,951 )
2003/04/07 # 147 ( 2,318 )
2003/04/14 # 136 ( 1,789 )
2003/04/21 # 162 ( 1,270 )
2003/04/28 # 166 ( 1,092 )
2003/05/05 # 207 ( 1,117 )
2003/05/12 # 189 ( 1,314 )
2003/05/19 # 223 ( 907 )
2003/05/26 # 256 ( 717 )

Total sales:1,856,919

Ayumi Hamasaki
Memorial Address

2003/12/29 # 1 ( 524,028 )
2004/01/12 # 2 ( 306,521 )
2004/01/19 # 3 ( 63,471 )
2004/01/26 # 6 ( 36,190 )
2004/02/02 # 7 ( 24,121 )
2004/02/09 # 16 ( 17,520 )
2004/02/16 # 22 ( 11,479 )
2004/02/23 # 25 ( 9,993 )
2004/03/01 # 36 ( 6,899 )
2004/03/08 # 49 ( 5,537 )
2004/03/15 # 65 ( 3,662 )
2004/03/22 # 64 ( 3,718 )
2004/03/29 # 77 ( 3,259 )
2004/04/05 # 104 ( 2,658 )
2004/04/12 # 90 ( 2,934 )
2004/04/19 # 76 ( 2,793 )
2004/04/26 # 63 ( 2,711 )
2004/05/03 # 101 ( 2,037 )
2004/05/10 # 100 ( 2,476 )
2004/05/17 # 124 ( 1,781 )
2004/05/24 # 134 ( 1,392 )
2004/05/31 # 165 ( 1,142 )
2004/06/07 # 196 ( 1,132 )
2004/06/14 # 168 ( 1,177 )
2004/06/21 # 181 ( 1,088 )
2004/06/28 # 187 ( 1,052 )
2004/07/05 # 282 ( 947 )
2004/07/12 # 198 ( 1,294 )
2004/07/19 # 238 ( 983 )
2004/07/26 # 226 ( 1,023 )
2004/08/02 # 231 ( 1,190 )
2004/08/09 # 144 ( 1,635 )
2004/08/16 # 135 ( 1,601 )
2004/08/23 # 169 ( 1,379 )
2004/08/30 # 156 ( 1,421 )
2004/09/06 # 253 ( 971 )
2004/09/13 # 247 ( 871 )
2004/09/20 # 236 ( 888 )
2004/09/27 # 244 ( 779 )
2004/10/04 fell from TOP 300
2004/10/11 # 256 ( 894 )
2004/10/18 # 292 ( 655 )
2004/10/25 # 249 ( 885 )
2004/11/01 # 274 ( 747 )

[2 weeks off]

2004/11/22 # 298 ( 609 )

[4 weeks off]

2004/12/27 # 225 ( 1,042 )

[2 weeks off]

2005/01/17 # 289 ( 1,712 )

Total sales:1,062,297

[Mad_Cactuar]

^ I should revive that thread, it's pretty handy.

Yeah, Ayu's album's second week are a lot lower. The same with Koda and just about every high-profile releases though. Even Beyonce and Justin Timberlake had a 70% sales decrease on the second week.

[immel]

Her 2nd week drops wasn't even 50% for her second week back then... yeah, a lot of her recent releases has dropped around 70%

[truehappiness]

Well, you must remember that the 2nd week for Memorial address was a combined 2nd+3rd week..

[Mad_Cactuar]

Rainbow too.

[immel]

Ooh, okay, so a 70% drop has been standard for her for a long time it seems.

I believe (m)u's drop was also somewhere around 70%, the sales was just lower in general.